Decode Newsletter - Issue #2
A market divided between a 4 year cycle and the tailwinds of a new expansion. Discover the signals pointing to a historic rotation, a new altseason, and a cycle top that's further away than you think.
Introduction
The market is at a point of maximum division, perhaps the most I’ve seen it this cycle so far. One half of my X feed thinks the top is in, and the other half of my feed thinks there is either one or two more legs higher to go. As usual, there are also the Bitcoin maxis calling for $1M, but we’ll set those longer-term projections aside to focus on the immediate cycle dynamics.
Sentiment is so split that it would be difficult for a casual observer to make a clear judgment on what comes next. This creates feelings of fear that your gains will evaporate in front of your eyes, combined with feelings of FOMO that you might miss the most spectacular move yet. No one can ever be certain about the future, but we can weigh up the probabilities if we just take ourselves away from the noise.
In This Issue
The 4-Year Cycle - Why this fear-inducing narrative is a trap.
The Great Rotation - Gold has finally topped. Is this the exact starting gun for Bitcoin’s most impressive move? We look at the data.
The Unseen Signal - My proprietary Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO) is flashing a bullish expansion. See the data that is completely at odds with current sentiment.
When Altseason? - We’re closer than you think. The one chart that links altcoins to the macro shift and shows why they are coiled for a breakout.
The 2026 Path - Mapping my primary Elliott Wave count for the real cycle top and why the bearish scenarios just don’t add up.