Decode Newsletter - Issue #3
Why I’m still betting on a longer Bitcoin cycle, how the AI revolution is fueling the next leg up, and what I'm doing to capitalise on it.
Introduction
What an environment in which to launch a newsletter! It has been a rough month in crypto, that’s for sure, but nothing too unexpected. We flagged the 55 EMA as the main target for a deeper correction right off the bat in Issue #1, and covered it in more detail in Issue #2 as it became more likely that those divergences would continue to play out.
As I put this next article together, Bitcoin has gone through a significant decline, coming to rest at the 55-week EMA, around 100k, with a total decline from the high of 21.6% wick to wick. Not a particularly large correction for Bitcoin by historical standards, yet the market has become gripped by extreme fear.
I’m a firm believer that the financial news and mainstream media, in general, are a major distraction. A quick check on what is being reported and we will read that Bitcoin has entered a bear market and that AI stock valuations have now reached unsustainable levels.
It’s all very bearish and paints a picture of imminent collapse, but there is really no meat on the bone and I don’t think it’s worth paying attention to. You have to ask yourself who is paying to run those stories and what their motives might be. For my money, it is much better to steer clear of all media narratives and just focus on the charts.
Short-term price action aside, the intended focus of these newsletters is always to cut through the noise and remain focussed on the long-term outlook, and that’s exactly what we will continue to do today. Since Bitcoin ETFs were launched, we have seen an extraordinarily controlled stair-step advance with decreasing volatility, and despite ‘cycle top is in’ sentiment everywhere, we haven’t seen the signature parabolic finale and euphoric sentiment that we have become so accustomed to at cycle tops.
In This Issue
Macro Backdrop: Why the Fed’s slow pivot and the end of QT are setting up a tailwind for 2026.
Business Cycle: An update on the ISM and our proprietary Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO) as we wait for the expansion signal.
Nasdaq & The AI Trade: Why the AI-driven tech boom is far from over and how OpenAI’s new structure fuels the next leg up.
Bitcoin’s Big Picture: Cutting through the “bear market” noise to analyse the competing 4-year vs. elongated cycle theories, along with Elliott Wave charts to match.
Altcoin Market Update: Assessing the damage and looking at the macro-inflection point that could ignite the altcoin market, including in-depth chart analysis on Ethereum and a handful of other of top coins!
Introducing TAO Tensor Law: A first look at my experimental statistical price model for Bittensor.